Zaza don't want none...
Good article by the Freakonomics guys on the use of stats in basketball, specifically with the Celtics:
Looks like the C's are going to pick-up Sam Cassell, native of Baltimore, MD. Good addition to the team...
]]>Watching the lay-up line that is Celtics versus Knicks at the Bahston Gahden tonight, Glen "Big Baby" Davis injured his knee on a spin move in the lane. When play stopped, Ray Allen sprinted over to Davis. The trainer was already checking Davis out, but Ray just wanted to stand there in support of his teammate. Yet another reason to like Ray Allen, by all accounts one of the classiest guys in the league...
“Rebounds equal rings” goes the famous Pat Riley quote. And, in this correspondent’s humble opinion, Riles is right. Not only do rebounds equal rings, they also equal wins. Basketball is, ultimately, a game of possessions. A team tries to score efficiently on its offensive possessions and tries to prevent the opposing team from scoring during defensive possessions. Rebounding numbers clue us into how efficiently a team is defending (higher defensive rebounding numbers means more stops) and how many extra possessions a team is getting on offense via offensive rebounds. The team with more possessions, generated by good defense and rebounding, usually wins.
At first glance, the Boston Celtics are doing very well in the rebounding department, with a rebound differential of +2.6, fourth best in the league. In fact, the C’s are holding opponents to an average of 38.7 rebounds per game, best in the league and the sign of a healthy defense (but then we already knew that).
However, if we dig a little bit further into the numbers, we start to see some signs of weakness. When it comes to offensive rebounds per game the C’s rank second-to-last in the entire NBA with only 9.5 per game. Why so low? One reason is that KG, the C’s best rebounder by far, takes (and makes) a lot of shots from about 17 to 20 feet out. When KG misses he is too far from the basket to get his own rebound. But the second, and more important reason, has to do with another individual. Let’s break down the Celtics' rebounding numbers by starter:
Rajon Rondo:
Averages an outstanding 3.9 rebounds per game, fourth best in the league among point guards. In fact, Rondo’s play this season is worthy of future post, as the general consensus seems to be that Rondo is playing well for a second-year player but he may not be a good enough starting PG on a championship caliber team. The reality is that Rondo is having an incredible efficient year. Quietly, Rondo is having a monster season.
Ray Allen:
Averaging 4 rebounds a game, good for 14th among shooting guards, which puts him in the top half of the league. No problem here.
Paul Pierce:
Averaging 5.5 a game, good for 14th in the league among small forwards. Again, no problem here.
Kevin Garnett:
Sixth best in the league among power forwards with 9.8 boards a game. KG is the C's best rebounder, and one of the best rebounders in the game.
Kendrick Perkins:
5.8 rebounds a game. Yes, you read that correctly. 5.8 rebounds a game. And here we come to the heart of the problem: Perk is one of the worst rebounding centers in the league. In fact, after Eddy Curry, Perk is the worst starting center in the league when it comes to rebounding. Given that Perk is also one of the worst scoring centers in the league (yesterday’s career high against the Knicks aside), as well as one of the worst passers on the team (1.7 turnovers a game, the same average that Ray Allen and Rondo have, both of whom play significantly more minutes and handle the ball more), and foul-prone (both of the regular and technical variety), there is not a lot that Perk does well. And if there is one thing you want your center to do well, it is to rebound.
Let’s take a look at how bad 5.8 rebounds a game truly is. That ranks 22nd in the league among centers (60th overall). Now, it is true that Perk only averages 25 minutes a game. However, 21st on the list is Nazr Mohammed. Mohammed also average 5.8 boards a game, but in only17.8 minutes, or 30% fewer minutes than Perk. 23rd on the list is Sean Williams. He pulls down 5.5 in 21.3 minutes. Andris Biedrins manages 9+ a game in two fewer minutes than Perk.
So, it is safe to say, that Perk does an awful job rebounding the ball. Given that he helps the team in no other way (below-average in scoring, assists, blocks; above-average in fouls, techs, and turnovers), we have identified one of the C’s biggest weaknesses. But wait, it gets worse. The C’s do not have a great rebounding center coming off the bench (although Leon Powe has shown signs the last two games). Rebounding, and more specifically rebounding at the center position, is the C’s one major weakness (the minor weaknesses are Tony Allen’s play, another topic worthy of its own post, and shaky ballhandling when Rondo and Ray Allen are out of the game).
So, what does Perk do well? He is a big body. He can play serviceable defense. As we saw yesterday against the Knicks, he is often open for lay-ups and dunks, although, with the exception of yesterday’s game, he does not necessarily fill this role well. Perk doesn’t explode to the basket. He has to gather himself for a dunk with a two-handed “crab dribble” that often results in a steal or block. Perk also has the bad habit of bringing the ball below his shoulders when getting a (rare) offensive rebound. This usually leads to a strip. Given the attention that KG, Pierce, and Allen demand, as well as Rondo’s drives to the basket, the C’s starting center should be feasting on offensive rebounds. Instead, Perk averages 1.8 offensive boards a game, good for 26th in the league among centers. In other words, on a team that generates a lot of double-teams and collapsing defense which should, theoretically, create a lot of offensive rebounds, the main benefactor is one of the worst offensive rebounding centers in the league.
Remedies:
There are three:
1) Trade for a big man. Given the cap situation, this is unlikely.
2) Sign a big man. News reports have stated that Ainge is definitely not interested in Webber (who is not a good rebounder anyway). PJ Brown is still out there, hoping to sign for big money with the Bulls if they need a sign and trade chip to complete a blockbuster trade (which looks less and less likely; probably only Gasol at this point). Once the trade deadline has passed, Brown will sign with a contender for the veteran’s minimum. The C’s would be a great fit. Also, after the trade deadline I imagine the TWolves will buy out Theo Ratliff and the Sonics will buy out Kurt Thomas. Either one would be a great pick-up for the C’s. And Dale Davis is still out there somewhere…
3) Post KG more. As I said earlier, KG takes and makes a lot of jumpers. However, most teams play KG straight-up when he is 17 feet out (as the Knicks did yesterday). KG on the block demands a double and triple team that not only opens up the entire floor (as KG is a superb passer) but also creates a lot of openings for KG to get more offensive rebounds.
Conclusion:
For most of the season, and against most of the teams, rebounding will not be a problem for the Celtics. Few teams have more than one good rebounder. Besides the center position all of the C’s starters are above-average rebounders. KG is one of the best rebounders in the game. However, deep in the playoffs, specifically against the Pistons and the Spurs (should the C's make it far enough to face those teams) rebounding will be critical.
12/8/07
At Chicago
16-2
First Quarter:
Second game of a back to back. Chicago, despite their awful record, is dangerous because of their rebounding ability. As a former coach, I've always felt that rebounding is the most important component of the game. If, as a team, you are rebounding well that indicates two things: you are playing good defense and you are getting multiple possessions on offense. As Pat Riley famously said, "Rebounds equals rings."
The Bulls do not look good. Their offense consists of trying to run the fast break and then, if the break is stalled, Gordon shooting off of various screens. I don't think Scott Skiles is going to make it to the end of the season.
Big Baby is playing well, 6 points and 5 rebounds in 10 minutes so far, but I am still not sold on him becoming an effective player. He does not posses NBA athleticism, nor NBA height (he's a 6-6 power forward) to offset his lack of NBA athleticism. He has good footwork, but without size or explosiveness, the footwork is negated. Right now he is getting by with a nice up and under move, but as soon as opposing players catch on and take away this move, Davis is in trouble. And let me add, I certainly hope I am wrong about all of this.
21-18, C's, at the end of the first.
Second Quarter:
My boy Chris Duhon is in for the Bulls. I attended Coach K's coaching clinic one year, when Duhon was a senior, and was impressed the way he lead the team through practice. Coach K shared a story: after a lackluster practice Duhon, the only senior on the team, made the team come in at midnight for extra practice and conditioning. No coaches. That is leadership.
Man, I wish the C's had signed Joe Smith in the off-season. He is doing a great job for the Bulls as their starting PF. I still remember when he was at Maryland, along with Baltimore native Keith Booth (like Big Baby, an undersized PF who never did much in the league). A year later my favorite Terrapin of all time showed up: LaRon Profit.
The C's biggest weakness is rebounding. With the exception of KG, who is an exceptional rebounder (one of the top two in the league along with Dwight Howard) our next best rebounder is probably Rondo. We have no one off the bench that can inhale rebounds (although Posey has been doing an admirable job). This will be a factor deep in the playoffs (assuming we move deep in the playoffs) when every possession counts.
Rondo is having another fantastic game. 6 for 8 at this point. He is one of the ten best PG's in the league, and one of the three best defensive points in the game.
Ten Best PG's in the League:
1. J Kidd (like KG over the past few years, people have no idea how good he really is)
2. Chris Paul (the new Kidd)
3. Nash
4. Deron Williams
5. Tony Parker
6. Jose Calderon (check his numbers)
7. Baron Davis
8. Chauncey Billups
9. Jameer Nelson
10. Rajon Rondo
Three Top Defensive Points:
1. J Kidd
2. Rondo
3. Harris or Darrell Armstrong
Third Quarter:
Rondo is playing out of his mind right now, hitting four straight shots and a nice kick-out to Ray for a three.
Big Baby also plays well, heading into the fourth with 11 boards.
Fourth Quarter:
Rondo starts the fourth with two turnovers: an offensive foul and not getting the ball across half-court within 6 seconds.
Defensive rotations look good. Down the stretch C's go with their money line-up: Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Posey, and KG.
C's win. Rondo finishes 9 of 13 from the field for 18 points, 7 rebounds, five assists. Not bad. The C's get three days rest. Sacremento next.
Those Celtic throwback unis are nice...
The Celtics beat the 76ers by 10 tonight. C's didn't play well through three and then turned it on in the fourth, thanks to some nice shooting by Posey and House. For three quarters the defensive rotations were slow and the team has gotten away from the nice passing they showed over the first five games or so. Although we finished with 22 assists that is misleading as many were off dribble drives and not from moving the ball well. Come the fourth both the defense and offense improved significantly. However, playing one of the worst teams in the league, and coming of three days rest, we should have put this team away quickly.
As for the Pats, as Napoleon said, "Give me a man who's lucky."
11/30/07
At Miami
12-2
1st Quarter:
Anfernee Hardaway is still in the league. Not only is Anfernee Hardaway still in the league, he is starting.
Allen shot well last night and makes a three to start tonight.
Kendrick Perkins throws a terriable high-low pass to Pierce posting up the afromentioned Anfernee Hardaway.
Maria Shorpova doesn't look that good in Hi-Def.
At the end of the first Pierce has 18 and I didn't even notice. C's up 6.
2nd Quarter:
House is playing great, hitting threes all over.
The commentators talk about how Garnett has refused to do any on-camers interviews without Allen and Pierce. I believe he did the same when Cassell and Spreewell were with the T-Wolves.
C's go into the half up 18. We need to come out strong in the 3rd and rest the starters in the 4th.
3rd Quarter:
Rondo gets a tip dunk off a miss by Pierce. Miami was in a scramble defense, trying to recover, and left Rondo a wide open lane for the dunk.
Rondo almost gets another dunk, waiting at the short corner, going up and getting fouled. Rondo shoots 43% from the free throw line. I've never seen a professional FT% that low.
C's up 22 going into the 4th. JWill hits two threes at the end of the quarter to bring Miami within 22
4th Quarter:
JWill hits two more threes and then Wade gets a lay-up and the foul. FT coming up. It's a 13 point game.
Seven minutes left and the Heat are down 12. C's are stagnant, everything is isolation. We're getting away from good ball movement which leads to high percentage shot. Wade and Davis have both missed threes or it would be even closer.
Rondo didn't keep his head against Cleveland. Will he tonight?
3:53 left and it is a 7 point game off a Williams 3. C's can hit a shot. Pierce has missed a couple of open looks. After starting 2-2 Ray is 0-12.
Ray hits a 12 foot bank shot and then two free throws sandwiched around a Haslem baseline jumper. Up by 9 with 2 minutes left. Should be able to pull it out.
Pulled out the win. Rondo played well down the stretch. Finishes with 5 steals. We played well in the 3rd but then Miami hit 4 threes and it was a game. We have to stay with the passing and away from the isos. The C's are staying in Miami tonight before flying back to Boston for Sunday's game. Tough life...
I didn't blog about the C's/Knicks last night. C's won by 45. The Knicks resembled a little old lady driving on the highway, cars speeding by her on the way to the house. Isiah, with his look of resigned desperation, reminded me of William H. Macy from Fargo. I can't believe they have won even four games.