4 posts from January 2008

Would you rather earn $50,000 a year while other people make $25,000, or would you rather earn $100,000 a year while other people get $250,000?  Answer here, in a piece called "Why People believe Weird Things About Money."

The School of Education at the University of Mississippi is one of the best in the nation according to NCATE, the national accreditation council for Schools of Ed.  What do you think?

Why We Flirt...

The Library of Congress has put thousands of tagged photos on Flickr.  Search for Mississippi, Mississippi Delta, or anything else that strikes your fancy.

NYC is measuring teachers by test scores...

Finally, two pieces about the decline of the American newspaper here and here by David Simon, the creator of "The Wire" (by the way I'm not happy with the serial killer storyline being played out this season) and one of the greatest living authors on the planet...

“Rebounds equal rings” goes the famous Pat Riley quote.  And, in this correspondent’s humble opinion, Riles is right.  Not only do rebounds equal rings, they also equal wins.  Basketball is, ultimately, a game of possessions.  A team tries to score efficiently on its offensive possessions and tries to prevent the opposing team from scoring during defensive possessions.  Rebounding numbers clue us into how efficiently a team is defending (higher defensive rebounding numbers means more stops) and how many extra possessions a team is getting on offense via offensive rebounds. The team with more possessions, generated by good defense and rebounding, usually wins.

At first glance, the Boston Celtics are doing very well in the rebounding department, with a rebound differential of +2.6, fourth best in the league.  In fact, the C’s are holding opponents to an average of 38.7 rebounds per game, best in the league and the sign of a healthy defense (but then we already knew that).

However, if we dig a little bit further into the numbers, we start to see some signs of weakness.  When it comes to offensive rebounds per game the C’s rank second-to-last in the entire NBA with only 9.5 per game.  Why so low?  One reason is that KG, the C’s best rebounder by far, takes (and makes) a lot of shots from about 17 to 20 feet out.  When KG misses he is too far from the basket to get his own rebound.  But the second, and more important reason, has to do with another individual.  Let’s break down the Celtics' rebounding numbers by starter:

Rajon Rondo:

Averages an outstanding 3.9 rebounds per game, fourth best in the league among point guards. In fact, Rondo’s play this season is worthy of future post, as the general consensus seems to be that Rondo is playing well for a second-year player but he may not be a good enough starting PG on a championship caliber team.  The reality is that Rondo is having an incredible efficient year.  Quietly, Rondo is having a monster season.

Ray Allen:

Averaging 4 rebounds a game, good for 14th among shooting guards, which puts him in the top half of the league.  No problem here.

Paul Pierce:

Averaging 5.5 a game, good for 14th in the league among small forwards.  Again, no problem here.

Kevin Garnett:

Sixth best in the league among power forwards with 9.8 boards a game.  KG is the C's best rebounder, and one of the best rebounders in the game.

Kendrick Perkins:

5.8 rebounds a game.  Yes, you read that correctly.  5.8 rebounds a game.  And here we come to the heart of the problem: Perk is one of the worst rebounding centers in the league.  In fact, after Eddy Curry, Perk is the worst starting center in the league when it comes to rebounding.  Given that Perk is also one of the worst scoring centers in the league (yesterday’s career high against the Knicks aside), as well as one of the worst passers on the team (1.7 turnovers a game, the same average that Ray Allen and Rondo have, both of whom play significantly more minutes and handle the ball more), and foul-prone (both of the regular and technical variety), there is not a lot that Perk does well.  And if there is one thing you want your center to do well, it is to rebound.

Let’s take a look at how bad 5.8 rebounds a game truly is.  That ranks 22nd in the league among centers (60th overall).   Now, it is true that Perk only averages 25 minutes a game.  However, 21st on the list is Nazr Mohammed.  Mohammed also average 5.8 boards a game, but in only17.8 minutes, or 30% fewer minutes than Perk.  23rd on the list is Sean Williams.  He pulls down 5.5 in 21.3 minutes.  Andris Biedrins manages 9+ a game in two fewer minutes than Perk.

So, it is safe to say, that Perk does an awful job rebounding the ball.  Given that he helps the team in no other way (below-average in scoring, assists, blocks; above-average in fouls, techs, and turnovers), we have identified one of the C’s biggest weaknesses.  But wait, it gets worse.  The C’s do not have a great rebounding center coming off the bench (although Leon Powe has shown signs the last two games).  Rebounding, and more specifically rebounding at the center position, is the C’s one major weakness (the minor weaknesses are Tony Allen’s play, another topic worthy of its own post, and shaky ballhandling when Rondo and Ray Allen are out of the game).

So, what does Perk do well?  He is a big body.  He can play serviceable defense.  As we saw yesterday against the Knicks, he is often open for lay-ups and dunks, although, with the exception of yesterday’s game, he does not necessarily fill this role well.  Perk doesn’t explode to the basket.  He has to gather himself for a dunk with a two-handed “crab dribble” that often results in a steal or block.  Perk also has the bad habit of bringing the ball below his shoulders when getting a (rare) offensive rebound.  This usually leads to a strip.  Given the attention that KG, Pierce, and Allen demand, as well as Rondo’s drives to the basket, the C’s starting center should be feasting on offensive rebounds.  Instead, Perk averages 1.8 offensive boards a game, good for 26th in the league among centers.  In other words, on a team that generates a lot of double-teams and collapsing defense which should, theoretically, create a lot of offensive rebounds, the main benefactor is one of the worst offensive rebounding centers in the league.

Remedies:

There are three:

1)  Trade for a big man. Given the cap situation, this is unlikely.

2)  Sign a big man.  News reports have stated that Ainge is definitely not interested in Webber (who is not a good rebounder anyway).  PJ Brown is still out there, hoping to sign for big money with the Bulls if they need a sign and trade chip to complete a blockbuster trade (which looks less and less likely; probably only Gasol at this point).  Once the trade deadline has passed, Brown will sign with a contender for the veteran’s minimum.  The C’s would be a great fit.  Also, after the trade deadline I imagine the TWolves will buy out Theo Ratliff and the Sonics will buy out Kurt Thomas.  Either one would be a great pick-up for the C’s.  And Dale Davis is still out there somewhere…

3)  Post KG more.  As I said earlier, KG takes and makes a lot of jumpers.  However, most teams play KG straight-up when he is 17 feet out (as the Knicks did yesterday).  KG on the block demands a double and triple team that not only opens up the entire floor (as KG is a superb passer) but also creates a lot of openings for KG to get more offensive rebounds.

Conclusion:

For most of the season, and against most of the teams, rebounding will not be a problem for the Celtics.  Few teams have more than one good rebounder.  Besides the center position all of the C’s starters are above-average rebounders.  KG is one of the best rebounders in the game.  However, deep in the playoffs, specifically against the Pistons and the Spurs (should the C's make it far enough to face those teams) rebounding will be critical.

Re-watched one of my favorite movies today: Heist, written and directed by the incomparable David Mamet.  I've blogged before about some of my favorite Mamet lines.  Here are three of my favorites from Heist:

"Plan a good enough get away and you could steal Ebbet's Field."-Joe
"Ebbet's Field is gone."-Bergman
"See what I mean."-Joe

"She could talk her way out of a sunburn."

"My motherfucker is so cool when sheep go to sleep, they count him."

Lots more here.

Major Andrew Olmstead died from small-arms fire during an ambush in Iraq on 1/3/08.  Major Olmstead had a friend posthumously publish his final blog entry (which I learned about courtesy of Paul Rieckhoff).  Here is part of the entry:

What I don't want this to be is a chance for me, or anyone else, to be maudlin. I'm dead. That sucks, at least for me and my family and friends. But all the tears in the world aren't going to bring me back, so I would prefer that people remember the good things about me rather than mourning my loss. (If it turns out a specific number of tears will, in fact, bring me back to life, then by all means, break out the onions.) I had a pretty good life, as I noted above. Sure, all things being equal I would have preferred to have more time, but I have no business complaining with all the good fortune I've enjoyed in my life. So if you're up for that, put on a little 80s music (preferably vintage 1980-1984), grab a Coke and have a drink with me. If you have it, throw 'Freedom Isn't Free' from the Team America soundtrack in; if you can't laugh at that song, I think you need to lighten up a little. I'm dead, but if you're reading this, you're not, so take a moment to enjoy that happy fact...

Read the rest here.